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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.